Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Djibouti⮸

Population $988,000$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,331$ on 2020-06-09

Best fit exponential: \(127 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(16.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{43,081.0}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 130.6)}}\) (asimptote \(43,081.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $34$ on 2020-06-09

Best fit exponential: \(0.558 \times 10^{0.030t}\) (doubling rate \(10.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{40.2}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 50.9)}}\) (asimptote \(40.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,158$ on 2020-06-09

South Africa⮸

Population $59,308,690$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $52,991$ on 2020-06-09

Best fit exponential: \(460 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,405,712.1}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 143.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,405,712.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,162$ on 2020-06-09

Best fit exponential: \(19.4 \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{17,782.7}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 111.3)}}\) (asimptote \(17,782.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $22,823$ on 2020-06-09

Algeria⮸

Population $43,851,044$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $10,382$ on 2020-06-09

Best fit exponential: \(954 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,181.9}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 58.6)}}\) (asimptote \(12,181.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $724$ on 2020-06-09

Best fit exponential: \(148 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{651.1}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 33.1)}}\) (asimptote \(651.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,707$ on 2020-06-09

Congo (Kinshasa)⮸

Population $5,518,087$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,259$ on 2020-06-09

Best fit exponential: \(73.5 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,705.1}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 86.3)}}\) (asimptote \(9,705.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $90$ on 2020-06-09

Best fit exponential: \(10.1 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{128.5}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 65.3)}}\) (asimptote \(128.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,630$ on 2020-06-09

Mauritania⮸

Population $4,649,658$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,162$ on 2020-06-09

Best fit exponential: \(0.504 \times 10^{0.046t}\) (doubling rate \(6.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,858.6}{1 + 10^{-0.070 (t - 70.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,858.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $61$ on 2020-06-09

Best fit exponential: \(0.0127 \times 10^{0.052t}\) (doubling rate \(5.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{130.8}{1 + 10^{-0.069 (t - 72.4)}}\) (asimptote \(130.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $962$ on 2020-06-09

Egypt⮸

Population $102,334,404$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $36,829$ on 2020-06-09

Best fit exponential: \(531 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{265,468.7}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 123.0)}}\) (asimptote \(265,468.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,306$ on 2020-06-09

Best fit exponential: \(85.4 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,896.4}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 85.9)}}\) (asimptote \(2,896.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $25,737$ on 2020-06-09

Gabon⮸

Population $2,225,734$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,247$ on 2020-06-09

Best fit exponential: \(57.1 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,652.7}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 64.2)}}\) (asimptote \(3,652.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $21$ on 2020-06-09

Best fit exponential: \(0.795 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29.8}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 68.1)}}\) (asimptote \(29.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,288$ on 2020-06-09

Cabo Verde⮸

Population $555,987$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $585$ on 2020-06-09

Best fit exponential: \(27.8 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(18.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{611.8}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 58.3)}}\) (asimptote \(611.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5$ on 2020-06-09

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $310$ on 2020-06-09

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Chad recovered 83%
Guinea recovered 23%
Senegal recovered 10%

Chad⮸

Population $16,425,864$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $844$ on 2020-06-09

Best fit exponential: \(84.7 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(16.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{867.2}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 34.0)}}\) (asimptote \(867.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $71$ on 2020-06-09

Best fit exponential: \(21.2 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{66.9}{1 + 10^{-0.088 (t - 13.7)}}\) (asimptote \(66.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $67$ on 2020-06-09

Guinea⮸

Population $13,132,795$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,258$ on 2020-06-09

Best fit exponential: \(435 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(20.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,551.7}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 44.7)}}\) (asimptote \(4,551.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-17 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $23$ on 2020-06-09

Best fit exponential: \(5.87 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27.4}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 26.5)}}\) (asimptote \(27.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,293$ on 2020-06-09

Senegal⮸

Population $16,743,927$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,516$ on 2020-06-09

Best fit exponential: \(169 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,244.3}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 66.3)}}\) (asimptote \(5,244.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $52$ on 2020-06-09

Best fit exponential: \(3.71 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{57.8}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 46.5)}}\) (asimptote \(57.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,655$ on 2020-06-09